World leaders will huddle at Camp David Friday with the
focus on Greece as it stumbles toward a possible eurozone exit that would hold
wildly uncertain repercussions for the global economy.
Leaders from the Group of Eight industrialised nations
will gather at the history-imbued US presidential retreat near Washington for a
two-day summit, with the dramatic denouement of Greece's economic crisis firmly
at the top of the agenda.
The recent clobbering of Greek parties that back
austerity measures under the country's 173 billion euro ($220 billion) bailout
has sparked a fresh round of market panic and left the two-year-old effort to
prevent a Greek default on life support.
Governments in many G8 countries believe the odds of a
chaos-inducing Greek default and exit from the euro have risen spectacularly
since the polls.
Already, markets across the globe have been rocked by
speculation that the crisis is slipping beyond control.
Europe's main stock markets sank in opening deals Friday
as investor sentiment was hit by the latest ratings downgrade for Greece.
Fresh Greek polls are scheduled for June 17, but there is
no certainty that supporters of the painful reforms will win, and already
nervous Greeks have been pulling money from bank accounts.
"The crisis in Greece is a very serious and
immediate problem," said Uri Dadush, a former senior World Bank official.
"Bank deposits are leaving Greece today."
While G8 governments are trying to frame the choice for
Greek voters as starkly as possible, donors could yet face a tough choice:
Acquiesce to Greek demands for some slack -- risking the ire of taxpayers -- or
cut off funding to Athens, a move likely to trigger default and Greece's exit
from the euro.
But elections in France and Germany have shattered a
longstanding consensus that spending cuts are the answer to Greece's -- and
Europe's -- woes, leaving the G8 divided as the end game approaches.
Freshly elected French President Francois Hollande is
sure to use his maiden G8 to press for pro-growth policies, and is likely to
win the backing of most people around the table.
That puts German Chancellor Angela Merkel firmly in the
hot seat.
Wary of German taxpayer anger about repeated bailouts for
countries on Europe's periphery, Merkel has insisted on a toolkit of austerity
first, second and third.
But the resulting slow-down in growth has made it even
more difficult for governments to get tax revenues and boost their coffers.
"The medicine that they have been taking is not
working," Dadush said.
"This will be an opportunity for the US, Italy and
France, not to gang up, but to work together on Merkel to say 'look, you need a
somewhat different approach.'"
Merkel may even find herself arguing with her host,
President Barack Obama.
Fearing the impact of European financial chaos on the
United States as it approaches elections in November, Obama seems poised to
wade into what has largely been a European debate.
At the summit, Obama will raise "specific"
actions Europe could take, as the United States welcomes the "debate in
Europe about the imperative for jobs and growth," according to National
Security Adviser Tom Donilon.
Still, with Obama unwilling or unable to put more cash on
the table, he may find himself with minimal leverage.
A compromise may be found in the creation of joint
European bonds for specific infrastructure or investment projects in hard-up
countries.
Supporters say the move would provide much needed
stimulus at a relatively low cost and keep budget cuts in place, allowing the
G8 to claim it is focusing on austerity and growth.
Others argue that this would do little to reverse the
drag that fiscal consolidation has put on the economies of Greece, Spain,
Portugal, Ireland and Italy.
G8 leaders will hold their main discussions on Europe's
fiscal plight Saturday at Camp David's rustic collection of cabins on the
wooded Catoctin Mountain in Maryland, outside Washington.
On Friday night, discussions around the dinner table at
Obama's Laurel Lodge will focus on Iran's nuclear challenge ahead of talks
between global powers and the Islamic Republic in Baghdad later this month.
The leaders are also expected to address Syria's
crackdown on its anti-government uprising, fears that North Korea will launch a
new nuclear test and Myanmar, after Obama eased US investment restrictions
Thursday on the country formerly known as Burma.
The G8 club of developed nations includes the United
States, Britain, Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan and Russia.
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