In the nearly four years since,
that plan has faded, as Mr. Obama’s climate agenda stalled. But Mr. Harper’s
swift move to match his policy to the President’s arrival underlined the impact
a U.S. election has here.
From energy exports to
cross-border trade, global security and broader economic concerns, the effects
of America’s choice between Mr. Obama and Republican Mitt Romney will be felt
in this country. Canadians have told pollsters they’d pick Mr. Obama by a wide
margin – but beyond the popularity contest, hard Canadian interests are at
stake.
Just as in 2008, a key issue for
Canada is energy.
A Romney administration would
clearly set out a welcome for Canada’s oil and gas, approving pipelines and
showing less interest in regulating greenhouse gases.
Mr. Romney has accused the
incumbent of endangering the United States’ energy security when he rejected
the extension of an oil pipeline from Alberta, the Keystone XL. Notably, he
included Canadian oil and gas in his calculations as he repeatedly stressed the
need for North American – rather than just American – energy security.
For Mr. Harper’s government and
Alberta’s oil patch, that’s a friendlier reception. Though Mr. Obama’s
administration insists it only rejected the Keystone pipeline temporarily – and
many believe he will approve it after the election – the refusal sparked a move
by Mr. Harper to emphasize energy exports to Asia. There’s little doubt that
Mr. Romney would be an easier sell.
“He sees our exports as a plus
into the American energy equation. Obama’s not been as clear cut on that,” said
Raymond Chrétien, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington and now a partner
with law firm Fasken Martineau in Montreal.
U.S. ambassador David Jacobson,
Mr. Obama’s envoy to Canada, suggests the campaign rhetoric on Keystone has
been overblown, even if Mr. Obama won’t match Mr. Romney in guaranteeing
approval. “The President views Canadian energy as critical, critical to the
energy security of the United States,” he said.
It’s less clear what impact the
election will have on other bilateral issues. In many ways, current Canada-U.S.
relations are blessed with few big disputes. But some, including Derek Burney,
another former ambassador to the U.S., say they’ve lacked strategic
co-operation. Washington dragged its feet on letting Canada into Trans-Pacific
Partnership trade talks, he said, and rejected Keystone. Canada offered to pay
for a new bridge to Detroit, but the Obama administration has done little to
campaign for its approval in Michigan.
Mr. Jacobson insists that
relations have worked well, pointing to things like the Beyond the Border
initiative aimed at speeding border trade and traffic. However, he admits
nitty-gritty bilateral issues don’t turn on which party wins the White House.
“Most of these issues are going to go forward whether it is a Romney
administration or an Obama administration,” he said.
But on foreign policy, Canadians
will see a difference, Mr. Jacobson suggested.
“Governor Romney, I think, is
pretty clearly going to be more aggressive in some regards than the President
has been, less willing to reach out to some of our friends and allies,” he
said. “We’ve seen what happens when our foreign policy – when the Canadian
people are not completely in sync with our foreign policy.”
For many Canadians, that’s a
potent reference to the past: George W. Bush’s approach to the world was
disliked by many here.
Mr. Romney would expand the
military, he’s less firmly committed to withdrawing troops in Afghanistan, and
he’s accused Mr. Obama of being weak in opposing Iran’s nuclear program.
But the differences have mostly
been on tone, not substance.
Above all, the big issue for
Canada is the one that will move Americans: the economy. Exports to the U.S.
account for nearly a fifth of Canada’s economy.
Some, like Mr. Burney, believe
that Mr. Romney’s election would boost business confidence in the U.S. But
others, including the British magazine The Economist, argue that his proposals
to increase military spending and cut taxes would dig the U.S. into deeper debt.
Picking the candidate who will
better manage the economy will be key on both sides of the border – but only
Americans, of course, will vote.
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